CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics | 14 July 2023


CRISIL’s outlook on near-term interest rates

One-month view

In July, domestic G-sec yields are likely to be influenced by crude prices, inflation print, rupee-dollar dynamics, global interest rates, investor appetite at G-sec auctions, announcements of variable reverse repo rate auctions, expectations of MPC outcome, heavy unseasonal rainfall, and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows.

Three-month view

During the three months through September, yields are likely to be impacted by crude price movements, inflation print, fiscal numbers, rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee and RBI MPC, India’s GDP growth trend, and FPI flows.

Framework for outlook

CRISIL provides its outlook on key benchmark rates for different debt classes – 10-year G-sec, state development loans (SDLs), and corporate bonds (CBs) – based on statistical models and inputs from its in-house experts. We also incorporate our view on policy expectations, macroeconomic outlook, key events (local and global), and market factors (liquidity and demand/supply).